Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks
(FCBs) are a dominant building material
globally
due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in
low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing
demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production
of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to
systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report
production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a
consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction
data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity
use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model,
using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs.
Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated
as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this
fraction could increase to 3.5–5% in 2050 considering a moderate
SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored
three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency;
(ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half
of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%,
and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.