Data and Code for: Welfare Analysis of Changing Notches: Evidence from Bolsa Familia

We develop a framework to bound the welfare impacts of arbitrarily large reforms to notches using two sufficient statistics: the change in the number of households locating below the new notch and the change in the number of households locating below the old notch. Our bounds hold in a wide class of models, highlighting a new way to use reduced-form bunching evidence for welfare analysis without making strong assumptions on the economic environment. We estimate these two statistics using a difference-in-difference strategy for a reform to the anti-poverty program Bolsa Familia, finding that the reform's MVPF is between 0.90-1.12.<br>