LOCA2-Ensemble SSP3-7.0 Hot Days

The Climate Resilience Information System (CRIS) provides data and tools for developers of climate services. This layer has projections of VAR in decadal increments from 1950 to 2100 and for three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The variables included are: Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 85°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 86°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 90°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 95°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 100°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 105°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 110°F Annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than or equal to 115°F This layer uses data from the LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM downscaled climate models for the Contiguous United States. Further processing by the NOAA Technical Support Unit at CICS-NC and Esri are explained below. For each time and SSP, there are minimum, maximum, and mean values for the defined respective geography: counties, tribal areas, HUC-8 watersheds. The process for deriving these summaries is available in Understanding CRIS Data. The combination of time and geography is available for a weighted ensemble of 16 climate projections. More details on the models included in the ensemble and the weighting methodologies can be found in CRIS Data Preparation. Other climate variables are available from the CRIS website’s Data Gallery page or can be accessed in the table below. Additional geographies, including Alaska, Hawai’i and Puerto Rico will be made available in the future. Geographies This layer provides projected values for three geographies: county, tribal area, and HUC-8 watersheds. County: based on the U.S. Census TIGER/Line 2022 distribution. Tribal areas: based on the U.S. Census American Indian/Alaska Native/Native Hawaiian Area dataset 2022 distribution. This dataset includes federal- and state-recognized statistical areas. HUC-8 watershed: based on the USGS Washed Boundary Dataset, part of the National Hydrography Database Plus High Resolution. Time Ranges Projected climate threshold values (e.g. Days Over 90°F) were calculated for each year from 2005 to 2100. Additionally, values are available for the modeled history runs from 1951 - 2005. The modeled history and future projections have been merged into a single time series and averaged by decade. Climate Scenarios Climate models use future scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations and human activities to project overall change. These different scenarios are called the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three different SSPs are available here: 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 (STAR does not have SSP3-7.0). The number before the dash represents a societal behavior scenario. The number after the dash indicates the amount of radiative forcing (watts per meter square) associated with the greenhouse gas concentration scenario in the year 2100 (higher forcing = greater warming). It is unclear which scenario will be the most likely, but SSP 2-4.5 currently aligns with the international targets of the COP-26 agreement. SSP3-7.0 may be the most likely scenario based on current emission trends. SSP5-8.5 acts as a cautionary tale, providing a worst-case scenario if reductions in greenhouse gasses are not undertaken. Data Export Exporting this data into shapefiles, geodatabases, GeoJSON, etc is enabled.气候韧性信息系统（Climate Resilience Information System, CRIS）为气候服务开发者提供数据与工具。本图层包含1950年至2100年以十年为步长的VAR预测数据，覆盖三种共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）。所包含的变量如下： 1. 年度最高气温≥85华氏度的天数 2. 年度最高气温≥86华氏度的天数 3. 年度最高气温≥90华氏度的天数 4. 年度最高气温≥95华氏度的天数 5. 年度最高气温≥100华氏度的天数 6. 年度最高气温≥105华氏度的天数 7. 年度最高气温≥110华氏度的天数 8. 年度最高气温≥115华氏度的天数 本图层所用数据源自美国本土区域经LOCA2与STAR-ESDM降尺度气候模型处理后的数据集。后续由美国国家海洋和大气管理局（National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA）下属CICS-NC技术支持单元及Esri完成的处理流程详见下文。 针对每个时间节点与共享社会经济路径，数据集已针对预设地理单元（县、部落区域、HUC-8流域）计算得到最小值、最大值与平均值。上述汇总统计值的推导流程可参阅《CRIS数据解读》（Understanding CRIS Data）。针对16个气候预测集合的加权集成结果，可按时间与地理单元组合获取。关于集成模型及权重计算方法的更多细节，可参阅《CRIS数据制备》（CRIS Data Preparation）。其他气候变量可通过CRIS官网的数据图库页面获取，或参阅下文附表。未来将新增包含阿拉斯加、夏威夷及波多黎各在内的地理单元数据。 地理单元 本图层提供三类地理单元的预测值：县、部落区域及HUC-8流域。 - 县：基于美国人口普查局2022年TIGER/Line矢量数据集制作。 - 部落区域：基于美国人口普查局2022年美国印第安人/阿拉斯加原住民/夏威夷原住民区域数据集制作，该数据集涵盖联邦及州政府认可的统计区域。 - HUC-8流域：基于美国地质调查局（United States Geological Survey, USGS）冲洗边界数据集制作，该数据集属于国家水文数据库Plus高分辨率版本的组成部分。 时间范围 本图层计算了2005至2100年每年的气候阈值预测值（如“90华氏度以上天数”）。此外，还提供1951至2005年的模型历史模拟结果。模型历史数据与未来预测数据已合并为单一时间序列，并按十年为周期取平均值。 气候情景 气候模型通过模拟温室气体浓度与人类活动的未来情景，预测气候整体变化趋势，此类情景统称为共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs）。本图层提供三种SSP情景：2-4.5、3-7.0及5-8.5（注：STAR未包含SSP3-7.0情景）。横杠前的数字代表社会行为情景类型，横杠后的数字代表2100年时该温室气体浓度情景对应的辐射强迫量（单位：瓦/平方米），辐射强迫越高，变暖幅度越大。目前尚无法确定哪种情景最贴合实际发展，但SSP 2-4.5目前符合第26届联合国气候变化大会（COP26）的国际气候目标。基于当前排放趋势，SSP3-7.0或为最贴合实际的情景。SSP5-8.5则作为警示性情景，代表未采取温室气体减排措施的最坏情况。 数据导出 支持将本数据集导出为Shapefile、地理数据库、GeoJSON等格式。