Text S1 - Quantifying Policy Options for Reducing Future Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England: A Modelling Study

Appendix and supporting tables. In the appendix we provide more details on the modelling techniques used and provide supporting tables showing age-specific results. Contents are as follows. Table A: Beta coefficients for major risk factors. Table B: Relative risks for CHD for smoking, diabetes and physical inactivity. Table C: Risk factor definitions from the Health Survey for England and participants at each stage. Table D: Risk factor levels in the Health Survey for England using pooled data (2003-08) by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table E: Smoothed baseline (2007) risk factor levels by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table F: Worst-case scenario: risk factor levels by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table G: Assuming current trends continue: risk factor levels by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table H: Intermediate scenario (halfway between current and optimal): risk factor levels by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table I: Optimal scenario: risk factor levels by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table J: Population in 2020, baseline mortality rates, and expected deaths assuming no change in CHD mortality rates by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table K: Deaths prevented/postponed in each scenario by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table L: Deaths prevented/postponed with 95% uncertainty intervals in each scenario by gender and deprivation quintile. Table M: Expected CHD mortality rates per 100,000 in each scenario by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. Table N: Relative change in CHD mortality (%) in each scenario by age-group, gender and deprivation quintile. (DOCX)