Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient scenarios output from General Circulation Models (GCMs) with three levels of farmer adaptations to climate change were utilized to generate crop yield estimates of wheat, rice, coarse grains (barley and maize), and protein feed (soybean) at 125 agricultural sites representing major world agricultural regions. Projected yields at the agricultural sites were aggregated to major trading regions, and fed into the Basic Linked Systems (BLS) global trade model to produce country and regional estimates of potential price increases, food shortages, and risk of hunger. These datasets are produced by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and are distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

气候变化对全球粮食供应潜在影响的评估：该数据集源于一项重要作物模拟研究，其中包含了因全球气候变化而引发的各国及区域粮食作物产量变化的预测数据。本研究利用了三种不同农民适应气候变化水平的通用环流模型（GCMs）的平衡和瞬时情景输出，对小麦、水稻、粗粮（大麦和玉米）以及蛋白质饲料（大豆）在代表全球主要农业区域的125个农业站点上的产量进行了估算。农业站点的预测产量被汇总至主要贸易区域，并输入至基本链接系统（BLS）全球贸易模型中，以产生各国及区域潜在价格上升、粮食短缺和饥饿风险估计。该数据集由太空研究戈达德研究所（GISS）制作，并由哥伦比亚大学国际地球科学信息网络中心（CIESIN）进行分发。