Asian Premium or North Atlantic Discount: Does Geographical Diversification in Oil Trade Always Impose Costs?

About the ProjectSince the oil price shocks of the 1970s, the security of oil supply has been the main concern in academic and policy circles. The goal of this research project is to study the other side of the coin—the security of oil demand from the net-exporters perspective. How do large oil exporters trade off risk and rewards in ensuring security of demand?In the first phase of this research project, the project develops a comparative static model of global oil trade to empirically measure the impacts of alternative crude oil market shares across segmented markets; to assess the strategic choice NOCs have in valuing alternative sales market portfolios in the context of the trade-off along the risk- reward frontier; and to compare IOC behavior as a benchmark for NOCs.More specifically, this project will attempt to specify a parsimonious model of regionally segmented global oil trade calibrated to 2012 benchmark data which would allow comparative static exercises to simulate equilibrium impacts of alternative placement of term-contracted crude oil, including impacts on total revenues for crude oil producers. The model focuses on three fundamental variables that determine relative crude oil prices: transport costs, crude oil quality, and refinery flexibility.In line with KAPSARC’s overall objectives, the intent is to produce policy-relevant insights that help actors in the oil industry understand the consequences of decisions taken by large exporters. The workshop series fits into the overall project by providing a continuing dialogue that raises key issues, provides feedback on current work, and sets future directions. The workshops are an open collaborative forum that enables the discussion of particular themes that feed into identified research questions.Key PointsDiversification of supply or demand is normally viewed as reducing risks but imposing costs. KAPSARC has developed a framework that suggests this is not always the case. Among our conclusions are: - Large crude suppliers may increase their revenues by allocating volumes to more distant markets, if by doing so they capture locational rents from more proximate buyers. - Based on the 2012 configuration of global oil markets, any significant coalition of Arabian Gulf exporters can exploit this opportunity. - Large crude buyers may reduce their costs by purchasing volumes from more distant suppliers, counteracting the strategies of their nearest suppliers. - No single buyer is currently large enough to position itself to benefit from supplier diversification. Long-term future reconfigurations, such as North American volumes becoming available in the Pacific markets or a Russian supply pivot from Europe to North East Asia, might alter the ability of current Middle East exporters to increase revenues while achieving greater customer diversity.

关于项目概要自20世纪70年代的石油价格冲击以来，石油供应的安全性一直是学术界和政策圈关注的焦点。本研究的宗旨在于探讨这一问题的另一面——从净出口国的视角审视石油需求的稳定性。大型石油出口国在保障需求稳定的过程中，如何权衡风险与收益？在研究项目的第一阶段，本项目构建了一个全球石油贸易的比较静态模型，以实证测量不同市场分割下的原油市场份额对市场影响的差异；评估国家石油公司（NOCs）在风险-收益前沿下的战略选择，即在评估不同销售市场组合时的价值取向；并将国际石油公司（IOCs）的行为作为NOCs的基准进行对比。具体而言，本项目旨在构建一个简约的全球石油贸易区域分割模型，以2012年的基准数据为依据，该模型将允许进行比较静态分析，模拟不同长期合同原油配置的均衡影响，包括对原油生产者总收入的影响。该模型聚焦于三个决定相对原油价格的基本变量：运输成本、原油质量和炼油厂的灵活性。与KAPSARC的整体目标保持一致，旨在产生具有政策相关性的见解，帮助石油行业的参与者理解大型出口商决策的后果。研讨会系列与整体项目相契合，通过提供持续的对话，提出关键问题，对当前工作进行反馈，并确定未来的研究方向。研讨会是一个开放的协作论坛，允许讨论特定主题，这些主题将有助于识别的研究问题。要点通常，供应或需求的多元化被视为降低风险的同时带来成本。KAPSARC提出的一个框架表明，情况并非总是如此。我们的结论包括：- 大型原油供应商通过将产量分配到更远的市场，可能会增加其收入，前提是这样做能够从更近的买家那里获得区位租金。- 基于2012年全球石油市场的配置，任何重要的阿拉伯湾出口国联盟都能利用这一机会。- 大型原油买家通过从更远的供应商处购买产量，可以降低成本，抵消其最近供应商的策略。- 目前没有单个买家规模足够大，能够定位自身以从供应商多元化中获益。- 长期未来的重构，如北美产量在太平洋市场的可用性或俄罗斯供应从欧洲转向东北亚，可能会改变当前中东出口商在增加收入的同时实现更广泛客户多元化的能力。