Social Isolation Predictions for County/County-Equivalents Missing Social Isolation Data in the CDC PLACES 2024 Dataset Release

Social isolation, described as a state in which an individual lacks social connectedness and personal relationships, was declared an epidemic by the United States Surgeon General in 2023, but nationwide data for county-level isolation prevalence and its most influential social determinants of health (SDOH) is limited. This gap in data and lack of SDOH attribution prevents policy-makers from constructing targeted prevention strategies that directly impact social isolation at the county level. Our study aims to close this gap by linking all available SDOH predictor variables with known social isolation estimates, enabling us to predict isolation estimates for counties that lack them and identify dominant SDOH drivers for each county.<br>We obtained known social isolation data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Population Level Analysis and Community Estimates (PLACES) 2024 dataset and county-level SDOH data from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) 2022 dataset. We then merged the two datasets, applied a linear regression model, and pruned predictors using statistical tools, generating a final set of 23 SDOH predictors used to predict social isolation percentages for 727 missing counties/county-equivalents. The contributions for each predictor were also calculated to find the dominant SDOH for each county and each predictor was classified as actionable or non-actionable. Of the 23, 6 were actionable, the most significant of which was broadband access, followed by public-only health insurance coverage and bachelor’s degree attainment.<br>This study completes the CDC PLACES dataset with comprehensive nationwide county-level estimates and identifies the most dominant SDOH drivers. This can inform targeted public health interventions, aligning with PHR’s mission of moving science into policy and practical public health applications. <br>