Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicates more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes

We analysed the global geographical characteristics of how extreme surface air temperature and rainfall have evolved, based on the recurrence rate of record-breaking events, and found hot spots with anomalously high as well as regions with anomalously low numbers of record-breaking events. The recurrence rate was defined as the proportion of the actual count of record-breaking events over time to the number expected in a hypothetically stable climate. In a stable climate, the data is independent and identically distributed (iid) if the data is sampled at intervals that makes the autocorrelation between data points negligible. Anomalous recurrence rates indicate shifts in the tails of statistical distributions, and our analysis of record-high annual mean surface air temperatures revealed highest recurrence rates in the tropics, as opposed to the polar regions with the fastest warming. We present new evidence for extremely hot years becoming more common and widespread over the 1950-2023 p..., Analysis using R and R-markdown script. Data from the ERA5 and NCEP2 reanalyses as well as global glimate models (CMIP6 SSP2-45)., , # Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicates more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pnvx0k6xk](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pnvx0k6xk)

A gzipped tar archive is provided containing R-markdown script, necessary data in R-binary and the output of the analysis: record-temperatures.Rmd, record-temperatures.pdf, record.stats.rda, and records.cmip6ssp245.rda.

## Description of the data and file structure

The R-markdown script (record-temperatures.Rmd) and R-binaries (*.rda) are provided for replication of the analysis and for the sake of transparency. The PDF file contains the output of running the R-markdown scripts, showing the R-code, figures and results and a replication of the analysis should give the same results. Hence, the PDF file should be sufficient for examining these files, and the other files are there for those who want to replicate the analysis. The analysis can be replicated using R-studio if th...