Warming threatens habitat suitability and breeding occupancy of rear-edge alpine bird specialists

Alpine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change. For widely distributed alpine specialists, rear-edge populations are disproportionately important; it is expected that climate change will reduce their occupancy ranges due to the loss of suitable habitats and connectivity among them. Using four alpine bird species inhabiting the southwestern Palearctic as models, we aim to study which and how environmental factors influence habitat suitability, identify mountain areas with suitable habitat, estimate the probabilities of hosting breeding populations for these areas, and predict how habitat suitability and breeding occupancy will change under future climate scenarios. We used a species distribution modeling approach to obtain habitat suitability maps for four biological seasons and assessed the importance and effects of climatic and landscape variables for the studied species. We also assessed the probability of occupancy of potential breeding patches using available system...