US crop yield

In this study, we show the response of corn and soybean yield stability to hot, dry and excess rainfall by using regression model for rainfed corn and soybean based on statistical yield data and process-based crop model ensemble simulation in the US Midwest. The results using observational data and model simulations consistently indicate that increased hot, dry and excess rainfall jointly reduce the corn and soybean yield stability. The crop insurance loss records indicate yield losses are the major source of declined yield stability. The influence of hot and dry to corn yield stability changes are similar, and hot predominantly drives the changes in soybean yield stability in the US Midwest.