The Impact of Natural Disasters on Child Marriage: Evidence from the 2007 Cyclone in Bangladesh

Bangladesh still has one of the highest rates of child marriage globally, even though legal restrictions have existed for almost a century. While previous research has identified various drivers of child marriage, the causal impact of natural disasters remains poorly understood. This study provides a causal analysis of how environmental shocks affect child marriage by examining Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh in 2007. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that cyclone exposure substantially increased child marriage rates among 14–18-year-olds. The effects are largest for the youngest girls; the probability of marrying before age 14 increased by more than 60% among those who married during the study period. The event-study results indicate that child marriage rates tended to rise about six months after a disaster struck. This is typically when families begin to experience prolonged economic hardship. The increase in child marriages is most evident in severely affected and poverty-prone districts. The evidence points to financial insecurity as a key factor behind the use of child marriage as a household coping strategy. This study underscores the importance of robust social protection measures for helping households absorb environmental shocks and mitigate adverse effects on child welfare.