Statistical relationships between biological parameters and environmental forcings in Lake Erie, 1970s–2010s

This report investigates interannual variability of biological parameters (diatom, hypoxia area, hypolimnetic oxygen depletion, dissolved oxygen, and phosphate load) and related environmental forcings (annual maximum ice cover, ice duration, wind speed, lake temperature, winter severity index,and four teleconnection patterns: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The statistical relationships are examined between two variables. Scatter and linear/non-linear regression methods are used to determinate whether they have linear or quadratic (non-linear) relationships. The purpose of this report is to 1) provide users with Lake Erie biological parameters and environmental forcings in as simple as possible format of graphs and tables; 2) explore the possible relationship between a single pair of parameters that are easily digested and applied to resources management, projection, and planning; and 3) lay a foundation towards the construction of multi-variable regression models to hindcast the retrospective measurements and to project seasonal variations of hypoxia and other biological parameters using physical/climate forcings as predictors.