Data from: Temperature explains broad patterns of Ross River virus transmission

Thermal biology predicts that vector-borne disease transmission peaks at
intermediate temperatures and declines at high and low temperatures.
However, thermal optima and limits remain unknown for most vector-borne
pathogens. We built a mechanistic model for the thermal response of Ross
River virus, an important mosquito-borne pathogen in Australia, Pacific
Islands, and potentially at risk of emerging worldwide. Transmission peaks
at moderate temperatures (26.4{degree sign}C) and declines to zero at
thermal limits (17.0{degree sign}C and 31.5{degree sign}C). The model
accurately predicts that transmission is year-round endemic in the tropics
but seasonal in temperate areas, resulting in the nationwide seasonal peak
in human cases. Climate warming will likely increase transmission in
temperate areas (where most Australians live) but decrease transmission in
tropical areas where mean temperatures are already near the thermal
optimum. These results illustrate the importance of nonlinear models for
inferring the role of temperature in disease dynamics and predicting
responses to climate change.