Global drivers of tree seedling establishment at alpine treelines in a changing climate

Alpine and Arctic treeline expansion depends on establishment of tree seedlings beyond the current treeline, which is expected to occur with climate warming. However, treelines often fail to respond to higher temperatures, and it is therefore likely that other environmental factors are important for seedling establishment. We aimed to analyse our current understanding of how temperature and a range of other environmental drivers affect tree seedling establishment at the alpine and Arctic treelines worldwide, and to assess the relative importance of temperature compared with other factors and how they interact. We collected 366 observations from 76 experimental and observational papers for a qualitative analysis of the role of a wide range of environmental factors on tree seed germination, tree seedling growth, survival and natural occurrence. For a subset of these studies, where the experimental design allowed, we conducted formal meta-analyses to reveal if there were global drivers for...