Supplementary material: Evaluation of emerging NASH therapies: the impact of treatment efficacy profiles on long-term health outcomes

<b>These are peer-reviewed supplementary materials for the article '</b><b>Evaluation of emerging NASH therapies: </b><b>the impact of treatment efficacy profiles </b><b>on long-term health outcomes</b><b>' published in the</b><b> </b><b><i>Journal of Comparative Effectiveness Research</i></b><b>.</b><b>Model validation</b><b>Supplementary Table </b><b>1</b><b>:</b> Validation of predicted outcomes<b>Supplemental references</b><b>Aim:</b> Evaluations of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) treatments require predicting lifetime outcomes from short-term clinical trials. <b>Materials &amp; methods:</b> A Markov model with NASH fibrosis stages F0–F3, NASH resolution, compensated cirrhosis (F4/CC), and liver-related complication (LRC) states was developed using literature-based standard of care (SoC) data. Hypothetical efficacy profiles were defined affecting resolution (100%-increase), fibrosis improvement (100% increase), or fibrosis worsening (50% decrease). <b>Results:</b> For the SoC, 10-year LRC rates increased with baseline fibrosis stage (F1: 3.0%; F2: 9.8%; F3: 27.2%; F4/CC: 64.9%). The fibrosis worsening profile reduced predicted 10-year LRC rates (F1: 1.9%; F2: 6.5%; F3: 19.1%; F4/CC: 55.0%) more than the resolution and fibrosis improvement profiles (F1: 2.6%/2.6%; F2: 8.5%/8.3%; F3: 23.3%/23.0%; F4/CC: NA/59.0%). Scenario analyses considered alternative SoC progression, treatment efficacy and treatment-stopping rules. <b>Conclusion:</b> Potential NASH efficacy profiles have differing impacts on predicted long-term outcomes, providing insights for future stakeholders.