The tree balance signature of mass extinction is erased by continued evolution in clades of constrained size with trait-dependent speciation

The kind and duration of phylogenetic topological “signatures” left in the wake of macroevolutionary events remain poorly understood. To this end, we examined a broad range of simulated phylogenies generated using trait-biased, heritable speciation probabilities and mass extinction that could be either random or selective on trait value, but also using background extinction and diversity-dependence to constrain clade sizes. In keeping with prior results, random mass extinction increased imbalance of clades that recovered to pre-extinction size, but was a relatively weak effect. Mass extinction that was selective on trait values tended to produce clades of similar or greater balance compared to random extinction or controls. Allowing evolution to continue past the point of clade-size recovery resulted in erosion and eventual erasure of this signal, with all treatments converging on similar values of imbalance, except for very intense extinction regimes targeted at taxa with high speciati...