An ensemble of trend preserving statistically downscaled projections for key marine variables under three different future scenarios for the Mediterranean Sea

The ensemble provides future projections of key marine variables under climate change for the Mediterranean region. The datasets were produced for three different future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and five different variables (potential temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and chlorophyll) at three different depth levels (5m, 25m and seafloor with the exception of chlorophyll) at monthly frequency for the years 1993 - 2099. The statistical metrics provided are the mean, standard deviation, minimum, maximum median, 2.5 and 97.5 percentile. The ensemble is computed over 3-7 different CMIP6 model realisations (depending on variable), the bias corrections and statistical downscaling was trained on the GLORYS12V1 reanalysis provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS).

The following Earth System Models were used in building the ensemble:

CMCC-ESM2 (Lovato et al. 2022)

CMCC-CM2-SR5 (Cherchi et al. 2019)

GFDL-ESM4 (Dunne et al., 2020)

MPI-ESM1-2-LR (Mauritsen et al., 2020)

IPSL-CM6A-LR (Boucher et al. 2020)

A description of the downscaling approach and evaluation of the datasets over the European regions is published in Kristiansen et al. 2024.

 Analogue datasets are provided in separate zenodo entries for the regions of the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Bay of Biscay, the Chilean coast and the area around the Yucatán Peninsula, see “Related identifiers”.

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. Generated using E.U. Copernicus Marine Service Information; https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00021,  https://doi.org/10.48670/moi-00019.

This data is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.