Assessing the suitability and dynamics of three medicinal Sambucus species in China under current and future climate scenarios

<strong>Abstract</strong> <strong>Aim:</strong> Climate change is rapidly altering the global ecological environment, causing habitat degradation and altering the distribution patterns of numerous plant species. <em>Sambucus </em>species have been wildly recognized for their pharmacological value, but their distribution patterns in China remain poorly understood. We studied the potential suitability and dynamics of three <em>Sambucus</em> species (<em>Sambucus adnata</em>, <em>Sambucus javanica</em>, and <em>Sambucus williamsii</em>) in China under climate change. <strong>Location:</strong> China. <strong>Methods:</strong> We used the random forest model to predict the potential suitable distributions of three <em>Sambucus</em> species in China under current and future climate scenarios (including SSP245-2050, SSP585-2050, SSP245-2090 and SSP585-2090 scenarios). Moreover, we identified key factors affecting their potential distributions. <strong>Results:</strong> Our results showed that <em>S. adnata</em> and <em>S. javanica</em> were primarily influenced by temperature seasonality and mean diurnal range, respectively, while <em>S. williamsii</em> was mainly affected by precipitation of the wettest month. Currently, <em>S. williamsii</em> was primarily distributed in north and central south China (9.57 × 105 km2), <em>S. javanica</em> was found in the south and east regions (6.41×105 km2), and <em>S. adnata</em> was mainly distributed in the southwest (1.99×105 km2). Under future climate change scenarios, <em>S. adnata</em> may shift to higher latitudes, while <em>S. javanica</em> may shift to lower latitudes. However, potential suitable areas for <em>S. williamsii</em> may contract under certain scenarios in 2050 and 2090, with an expansion under SSP585 in 2090. <strong>Main conclusions:</strong> Our study highlights the influence of climatic factors on the potential distribution of <em>Sambucus</em> species and provides theoretical guidance for the conservation, cultivation, and utilization of <em>Sambucus</em> medicinal plant resources under climate change.