Game theory and operations research approaches to agricultural land fragmentation and crop planning in Thailand

This thesis focuses on difficulties in the Thai agriculture sector, which are crop planning under uncertain weather, agricultural land fragmentation, and efficient land use. This study uses game theory and operations research combined with real data to offer practical guidelines for decision-makers.Crop planning in Thailand faces difficulties because of uncertain weather conditions such as unpredictable rainfall patterns, floods, and droughts. A game theory model with agriculturalists and nature as the two players is used to solve this problem. Agriculturalists can choose from crops suitable for the area, while nature has three rainfall conditions: below normal, normal, or more than normal. With integrating flood durations and water sources, the model analyzes 48 cases for different areas, providing suggestions for agriculturalists in choosing suitable crops.Agricultural land fragmentation is splitting a larger area into parts, which impacts agricultural productivity and food security. We use a game theory model with two players: landowners and the government. Landowners can choose to fragment their land or keep it non-fragmented, while the government can choose to encourage landowners to keep their land non-fragmented or punish them if they choose to fragment it. The results provide policy recommendations for the government to manage this problem.To optimize crop planning in the Eastern Economic Corridor, focusing on Rayong Province, this study applies operations research combined with geographic information systems. Although the data show that crops are generally allocated to suitable areas, not all of them are perfectly optimal. Furthermore, some currently cultivated crops are not fully profitable, but relocating them can improve overall profitability.