Low Interest Rates, Policy, and the Predictive Content of the Yield Curve
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Does the yield curve's ability to predict future output and recessions differ when interest rates are low, as in the current global environment? In this paper we build on recent econometric work by Shi, Phillips and Hurn that detects changes in the causal impact of the yield curve and relate that to
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2020-08-01
