Supplementary Material for 'Global land futures under values-based scenarios of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework' (2020-2100)

This archive contains land system outputs from the PLUM module of LandSyMM (see here for the PLUM code; LandSyMM) that were generated for the paper 'Global land futures under values-based scenarios of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.' Future projections are provided for nine scenarios; these comprise a reference scenario (BAU), two sets of four NFF-aligned scenario variants (NfN, NFNl, NfS, NaC): Policy-Only (*_SSP2) scenarios apply nature-focused management constraints, and while Full scenarios extend the Policy-Only set by incorporating broader socioeconomic changes about, for example, trade policy and dietary transitions. All scenarios include consistent background conditions (e.g., GDP, population growth and climate trajectories). See paper for full scenario descriptions. Each scenario folder contains comprehensive data about land cover and land use (gridded), food/timber demand and associated trade and prices (country-level). Full details can be found in README. We also provide land cover projection downscaled from 0.5° to 0.01° using the LandScaleR algorithm (LandScaleR). Downscaled projections are provided for five Full scenarios: BAU, NfN_NfN, NfNl_NfNl, NfS_NfS, NaC_NaC, where LandScaleR was parameterised using the global-scale optimum parameter values. These are provided as GeoTiff files. Each file is named according to the corresponding future scenario and contains land cover at 2020 from HILDA+ version 2b, and downscaled future LULC projections from 2021 to 2100 for the given scenarios. The downscaled maps include seven land cover categories: urban, cropland, pasture/rangeland, managed forest, unmanaged forest, unmanaged grass/shrubland, and sparse/no vegetation. We also provide spatial prioritisation maps for restored and conserved areas for each scenario value perspective (NfN, NfNl, NfS, NaC) aligned with KMGBF Targets 2 and 3 (T2 and T3). The union of T2 and T3 maps formed part of the parameterisation for the modelled scenarios. Full methodological description for the prioritisation procedure can be found in the paper. Full details of the files can be found in README. This research was conducted as part of the Biofutures project (funded by DEFRA [International Biodiversity & Climate] under project C23386 – Development of biodiversity modelling and scenarios for the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework; KMGBF).