Understanding the Trends–An Analysis of Age, Period, and Cohort Effects on Marriage Age and Rates in China

Amidst rapid social transformation, the marriage behavior of young people in China are continuously changing toward marriage postponement and decline. What are the factors contributing to the collective changes in marital behavior among Chinese young people? This study used the 2003–2021 China General Social Survey cross-sectional data and hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random-effects model to investigate factors influencing marriage behaviors. The results show: women’s education levels and social class were positively correlated with age at first marriage and negatively correlated with marriage probability. The period effect suggests that macroeconomic growth was positively correlated with age at first marriage; Yet the wage growth rate was negatively correlated with age at first marriage in lower social classes and positively with marriage probability among farmers and individuals with low education levels. Differences between cohorts were also observed: individuals born during the one-child policy era (between 1980 and 1990) showed a significant decrease in the marriage rate at age 30 compared to those born in the 1960s and 1970s. Delayed marriage and reduced marriage rates were highly correlated with the social determinants of gender, educational level, and social class. Cohort and period effects reveal deep socioeconomic and policy impacts on individual marriage behaviors in China.