Replication Data for: Civil war termination and foreign direct investment, 1989-2012

Data on global FDI inflows shows that civil war significantly deters investment, while post-civil war settings attract investment. Civil wars, however, can end in different ways (government victories, rebel victories, and various types of settlements) and firms should be attracted to terminations that reveal more information about the future political and economic stability of the nation. We argue that comprehensive peace agreements and their subsequent implementation convey the most relevant information to investors regarding the credibility of the conflict actors to future peace and stability and should thus attract the most FDI. Analysis of FDI inflows to 73 post-civil war countries lends support to our argument. The policy implications of the study are straightforward: governments that wish to attract the maximum amount of FDI for economic reconstruction following a civil war should negotiate and implement a comprehensive peace agreement.全球外商直接投资（Foreign Direct Investment, FDI）流入数据显示，内战会显著抑制投资流入，而内战后的局势则能够吸引投资。不过，内战的结束方式存在多种类型：政府获胜、反叛武装获胜以及各类和解协议，且投资者会更青睐于那些能更清晰展现国家未来政治与经济稳定性的内战终结模式。本文认为，全面和平协定及其后续执行过程，能够向投资者传递关于冲突各方兑现未来和平与稳定承诺的最具相关性的信息，因此应能吸引最多的外商直接投资。针对73个内战后国家的外商直接投资流入数据分析，为本研究的论点提供了实证支撑。本研究的政策启示清晰明确：若希望在战后通过吸引最多外商直接投资开展经济重建，各国政府应谈判并落实全面和平协定。