Climate-associated decline of body condition in a fossorial salamander

Climate-associated decline of body condition in a fossorial salamander Abstract Temperate ectotherms have responded to recent environmental change, likely due to the direct and indirect effects of temperature on key life-cycle events. Yet, a substantial number of ectotherms are fossorial, spending the vast majority of their lives in subterranean microhabitats that are assumed to be buffered against environmental change. Here we examine whether seasonal climatic conditions influence body condition (a measure of general health and vigor), reproductive output, and breeding phenology in a northern population of fossorial salamander (Spotted Salamander,Ambystoma maculatum). We found that breeding body condition declined over a 12 year monitoring period (2008–2019) with warmer summer and autumn temperatures at least partly responsible for the observed decline in body condition. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated metabolism drives the negative association between temperature and condition. Population-level reproduction, assessed via egg mass counts, showed high interannual variation and was weakly influenced by autumn temperatures. Salamander breeding phenology was strongly correlated with lake ice-melt but showed no long-term temporal trend (1986–2019). Climatic warming in the region, which has been and is forecasted to be strongest in the summer and autumn, is predicted to lead to a 5 to 27% decline in salamander body condition under realistic near-future climate scenarios. Although the subterranean environment offers a thermal buffer, the observed decline in condition and relatively strong effect of summer temperature on body condition suggest that fossorial salamanders are sensitive to the effects of a warming climate. Given the diversity of fossorial taxa, heightened attention to the vulnerability of subterranean microhabitat refugia and their inhabitants is warranted amid global climatic change. The dataset and corresponding R script are split into five parts, consistent with the presentation of Methods/Results in Moldowan et al. Part 1 of 5: Body condition data and analysis files 2008.2019.female.SMI.CONSTANTSVL.csv 2008.2019.male.SMI.CONSTANTSVL.csv 2009.2019.female.SMI.CONSTANTSVL.csv 2009.2019.male.SMI.CONSTANTSVL.csv BodyCondition.TimeSeries.WeightedRegression.csv SMAregression.Female.2009.2019.R SMAregression.Male.2009.2019.R ModelSel.Avrg.Forecast.AutoCor.FemaleBodyCondition.climate.R ModelSel.Avrg.Forecast.AutoCor.MaleBodyCondition.climate.R WeightedRegression.BodyCondition.TimeSeries.R YearEffects-Njal_PDM update (20 March 2021) Part 2 of 5: Forecast body condition under climate change files 2009.2019.male.SMI.CONSTANTSVL.csv (as above in Part 1) HeatMap.Forecast.MaleSMI.04 Feb 2021.R Part 3 of 5: Reproductive output (egg mass) data and analysis files 2009.2019.EggCount.Climate.csv ReproductiveOutput.climate.R Part 4 of 5: Breeding phenology data and analysis files 2008.2019.BreedingPhenology.Climate.csv Opeongo.Two Rivers.Bat.IceOff.csv BreedingPhenology.climate.R Part 5 of 5: Temperature dataloggers and salamander metabolic rate estimation files HOBO_Bat_Lake_Underground_Temperatures.csv WhitfordHutchison1967Data.csv WhitfordHutchison1967DataExplainer.xlsx Metabolic Rate Prediction_PDM, 21 Feb 2021.R