Global Economic Prospects

This dataset examines growth trends for the global economy and how they affect developing countries. The reports include three-year forecasts for the global economy and long-term global scenarios which look ten years into the future. The forecast process starts with initial assumptions about advanced-economy growth and commodity price forecasts. These are used as conditioning assumptions for the first set of growth forecasts for EMDEs, which are produced using macroeconometric models, accounting frameworks to ensure national account identities and global consistency, estimates of spillovers from major economies, and high-frequency indicators. These forecasts are then evaluated to ensure consistency of treatment across similar EMDEs. This is followed by extensive discussions with World Bank country teams, who conduct continuous macroeconomic monitoring and dialogue with country authorities. Throughout the forecasting process, staff use macroeconometric models that allow the combination of judgement and consistency with model-based insights. This collection includes only a subset of indicators from the source dataset.