Evaluating archived Freight Analysis Framework forecasts: code, inputs and results

Code, bundled inputs and result files for scoring archived long-range forecasts of the U.S. Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) against later estimates, surveys and external counts. Coverage: FAF releases 2.2, 3.1.2, 3.5, 4.2 and 4.5.1, and the forecast shared by FAF5.5, FAF5.6.1 and FAF5.7.1 (base years 2002 to 2017); realized values through 2024; national, mode, commodity-group and state-by-mode cells. What the pipeline does- Computes forecast-minus-realized growth errors by cell (nation, nation by mode, nation by mode and commodity group, state by mode), weighted by base-year tons.- Scores the errors on several realized series: FAF estimates chained across benchmarks, FAF5.7.1's own series, the estimates available at the time, the Commodity Flow Survey, the STB Public Use Waybill Sample, Waterborne Commerce of the United States and the truck tonnage index.- Splits level errors against the next survey benchmark (FAF4.5.1, FAF5.7.1, FAF6.0) into base-year difference, growth error and benchmark revision.- Compares the forecasts with naive forecasts and with corrections by a share of earlier releases' errors.- Builds ranges from past errors and scores their coverage in total and by mode, on all flows and on domestic flows.- Scores the forecast shared by the FAF5 releases for 2023 and 2024, and extracts the Minnesota series by mode and trade type.- Optionally rebuilds the bundled inputs from the original public files. - rq1_*, rq2_*, rq3_*, rq4_*: errors by level and yardstick; errors against output growth; scenario coverage; ranges and their coverage.- robustness*, realized_overlap: alternative specifications; overlap of the realized series.- adda_*, addb_*: naive forecasts, corrections, ranges by mode, commodity contributions, editions of the realized values, level splits, later releases scored one by one.- plan_*: state-by-mode level errors, the shared FAF5 forecast, domestic-flow checks, the Minnesota series.- MANIFEST.txt: rows and SHA-256 of every result file.All result files contain aggregates only. InputsDerived from public U.S. government data: Freight Analysis Framework (BTS and FHWA), Commodity Flow Survey (U.S. Census Bureau and BTS), Public Use Waybill Sample (STB), Waterborne Commerce of the United States (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers), Transportation Services Index (BTS) and real GDP (BEA, via FRED). data/raw/MANIFEST.tsv lists every original file with its URL, retrieval date and SHA-256.