Effects of future climate change on the forests of Madagascar

Global climate change is continuing to occur at an alarming rate. In
addition to increases in global weather extremes, melting of polar ice
caps and subsequent sea level-rises, climate change is known to directly
impact the life-cycles and ecologies of many animals and plants. Whilst
climate change is projected to result in substantial geographic range and
habitat contractions for many species in the future, the effects of
climate change on many habitats of conservation-concern remain poorly
understood. In this study, we investigated how future climate change is
projected to impact the occurrence and distribution of four major forest
types of Madagascar, a global biodiversity hotspot and conservation
priority, over the next 60 years. We also compared how climate change
effects vary among the four forest types under a “mitigation” climate
forecast, and under a “business-as-usual” trajectory. As expected, our
models suggest that future climate change will affect the distribution of
the four forest types under both trajectories, and forest occurrence is
likely to decrease if mean temperatures, temperature seasonality, and
precipitation rates increase as predicted. The exception being that forest
gain is predicted to occur in the north-west of Madagascar, resulting in a
small increase in transitional forest area under the “business-as-usual”
climate change trajectory. Our study highlights that unmitigated climate
change will have a negative impact on Madagascar’s forests during the
period up to the year 2080, and climate change therefore needs to be
mitigated. Madagascar remains a global conservation priority, and urgent
conservation action and protective legislation is required to safeguard
the future of its native forest.