Bilateral Conflict Risk and Trade: Military Wars, Trade Wars, and Diplomatic Noise
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How damaging is a trade war compared to a military war or a war of words? Aggregate conflict indicators cannot say, because they treat missile strikes, sanctions, and diplomatic protests as equivalent. We build a monthly bilateral indicator from GDELT event data, calibrated against human-curated
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美国国家经济研究局创建时间：
2026-04-01
