Interpretation of the Hurricane Ian cone forecast impact on evacuation decision making of individuals aged 55 and older

Hurricane Ian (2022) affected Pinellas County Florida which had a population estimate of 409,230 (42.5%) older adults aged 55+ in 2022. Forecast cones released before landfall may be interpreted in different ways by various populations. Further investigation is needed to evaluate the relationship between cone interpretation and evacuation decisions in 55+ adults to improve risk communication. An anonymous survey was administered to populations impacted by Hurricane Ian to further examine forecast cone interpretation and evacuation behaviors. Researchers used R Studio for sub setting the 55+ population along with cleaning, categorization, and organization in preparation for statistical analyses using a logistic regression model in IBM SPSS Version 29. The data from questions The size of the cone represents the size of the storm (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.006 - 1.270]) and Areas outside the cone are not at risk to hurricane impacts (OR = 1.223, CI 95% [1.003-1.492]) proved to be statistically significant, meaning that individuals who evacuated are more likely to fully agree that the cone represents the size of the storm and hurricane impacts are not present outside the cone. As a result, older adults in Pinellas County who evacuated for Hurricane Ian had slightly higher odds of interpreting the forecast cone incorrectly.

The Weather Climate and Society REU program invited 10 students from across the US to conduct research projects related to disaster-vulnerable communities in Florida and other extreme weather-affected areas. These projects were interdisciplinary, integrating social science and physical science aspects of severe weather, climate, and related disasters through field work, interviews, and/or spatial analysis of secondary data in GIS. The PI of this REU is Dr. Jennifer Collins.