Feasibility and Challenges of Low-Carbon Transition of China’s Power System

Low-carbon transition of China’s power system
is pivotal
for global climate management. National aggregate analysis in prior
work (10.1038/s41560-021-00863-0, 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.09.012, 10.1038/s41558-019-0509-6, 10.1038/s41558-022-01570-8 , 10.1093/ooenergy/oiad009) masks the conflicts between China’s power system mechanism,
carbon mitigation, and economic development goals and conceals provincial
heterogeneities in socioeconomic capabilities, costs, and risks. We
address those issues by comparing decline in coal use and acceleration
in renewable adoption rates (RCHI) in China’s provinces
along with China’s 2030–2060 carbon mitigation and economic
development goals to that in 52 other countries at their historical
fastest transformation (RMAX) decade, based on their socioeconomic,
power system structure, and mechanism conditions, and quantifying
the unit-associated unemployment and stranded assets due to decline
in coal use. We observed that RCHI distributes unevenly
in time and space. In time scale, the transition follows a “fast-then-slow”
trajectory in terms of stranded assets, leading to higher socioeconomic
and political efforts at the beginning of the process. Spatially,
certain provinces face heightened risks related to stranded assets,
unemployment, and energy security, underscoring the urgent need for
power system reforms and equitable carbon quota allocations for a
just transition. To achieve its 2030–2060 carbon targets, China
must attain higher RCHI than RMAX, overcoming
stringent socioeconomic and political challenges and entrenched system
inertia.