Data_Sheet_2_Perceived risk for falls and decision-making in riding raised ramps in mountain biking: a pilot study.PDF

Mountain biking (MTB) is a challenging activity where riders face constant decisions on whether to attempt technical paths or features (e.g., wooden ramps and jumps) that pose risk for falls and injuries. Risk homeostasis theory posits that riders pursue an optimal non-zero level of risk that balances the rewards of attempting challenging features with the need to avoid unreasonable risk for injury. Little is known on how riders judge risk, and the level of risk that riders deem unacceptable. We conducted experiments with experienced MTB riders (n = 17) to examine how their willingness to ride raised wooden ramps depended on their perceived probability for falling (Pf) and their perceived probability for injury in the event of a fall (Pi) while riding the ramp. In one experiment, participants viewed ramps of varying widths and heights and described their willingness to ride each ramp, along with Pf and Pi. We found that Pf and Pi were independent predictors of willingness to attempt ramps. Moreover, the product Pf*Pi (the perceived risk for injury in attempting the ramp) was a stronger predictor than Pf or Pi alone. In a second experiment, participants viewed ramps of different widths, and reported the maximum (threshold) height where they would ride each ramp, along with Pf and Pi. We found that Pf*Pi at the threshold height, averaging 13%, did not vary with ramp width. We conclude that decisions on riding ramps are based on the product Pf*Pi. On average, riders refused to ride ramps when Pf*Pi exceeded 13%.

山地自行车（MTB）是一项充满挑战的运动，骑行者在面对不断出现的决策时，必须权衡是否尝试具有技术性的路径或特征（例如，木质坡道和跳跃），这些特征可能带来跌落和受伤的风险。风险稳态理论认为，骑行者会追求一种最佳的非零风险水平，以平衡尝试具有挑战性的特征所带来的回报与避免不合理风险以防止受伤的需求。关于骑行者如何判断风险以及他们认为不可接受的风险水平，目前所知甚少。我们针对经验丰富的山地自行车骑行者（n=17）进行了实验，以考察他们骑行木质坡道的意愿如何依赖于他们感知的跌落概率（Pf）以及在跌落事件中受伤的概率（Pi）。在一项实验中，参与者观察了不同宽度和高度的坡道，并描述了他们骑行每个坡道的意愿，以及Pf和Pi。我们发现，Pf和Pi是尝试坡道意愿的独立预测因素。此外，Pf*Pi（尝试坡道时感知到的受伤风险）的乘积比Pf或Pi单独作为预测因素更为强烈。在另一项实验中，参与者观察了不同宽度的坡道，并报告了他们愿意骑行每个坡道的最大（阈值）高度，以及Pf和Pi。我们发现，在阈值高度处，Pf*Pi的平均值为13%，且与坡道宽度无关。我们得出结论，骑行坡道的决策是基于Pf*Pi的乘积。平均而言，当Pf*Pi超过13%时，骑行者拒绝骑行坡道。