Shifts in Central Asia's Surface Energy Balance Over the Century

Central Asia, a critical climate hotspot with arid and semi-arid landscapes, has experienced significant hydroclimatic changes amid global warming, impacting land–atmosphere energy exchanges. This study analyzes century-scale spatiotemporal dynamics and future projections of surface heat fluxes—sensible heat flux (SHF), latent heat flux (LHF), and ground heat flux (GHF)—from 1948 to 2048. Using observational data from NASA Giovanni and robust statistical methods, we quantify historical trends and generate out-of-sample projections. Results show a significant decline in SHF (Theil-Sen slope: -0.082 W m⁻² yr⁻¹) and an increase in LHF (Theil-Sen slope: 0.056 W m⁻² yr⁻¹), indicating a shift toward enhanced evapotranspiration due to regional wetting and warming. GHF shows a minor, non-significant positive trend. Projections suggest continued SHF reductions (to ~39 W m⁻² by 2048) and LHF increases (to ~24–35 W m⁻²), with increasing uncertainties. These findings highlight implications for drought vulnerability and boundary-layer dynamics, providing a framework for integrating heat flux trajectories into global climate assessments.