soil moisture reconstruction

Reference:

@article{doi:10.1126/science.aaz9600,author = {A. Park Williams  and Edward R. Cook  and Jason E. Smerdon  and Benjamin I. Cook  and John T. Abatzoglou  and Kasey Bolles  and Seung H. Baek  and Andrew M. Badger  and Ben Livneh },title = {Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought},journal = {Science},volume = {368},number = {6488},pages = {314-318},year = {2020},doi = {10.1126/science.aaz9600},URL = {https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.aaz9600},eprint = {https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.aaz9600},abstract = {Global warming has pushed what would have been a moderate drought in southwestern North America into megadrought territory. Williams et al. used a combination of hydrological modeling and tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to show that the period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest 19-year span since the late 1500s and the second driest since 800 CE (see the Perspective by Stahle). This appears to be just the beginning of a more extreme trend toward megadrought as global warming continues. Science, this issue p. 314; see also p. 238 Global warming is causing megadrought in southwestern North America. Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46\% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103\%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.}}

TY  - JOURAU  - Williams, A. ParkAU  - Cook, Benjamin I.AU  - Smerdon, Jason E.PY  - 2022DA  - 2022/03/01TI  - Rapid intensification of the emerging southwestern North American megadrought in 2020–2021JO  - Nature Climate ChangeSP  - 232EP  - 234VL  - 12IS  - 3AB  - A previous reconstruction back to 800 ce indicated that the 2000–2018 soil moisture deficit in southwestern North America was exceeded during one megadrought in the late-1500s. Here, we show that after exceptional drought severity in 2021, ~19% of which is attributable to anthropogenic climate trends, 2000–2021 was the driest 22-yr period since at least 800. This drought will very likely persist through 2022, matching the duration of the late-1500s megadrought.SN  - 1758-6798UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zDO  - 10.1038/s41558-022-01290-zID  - Williams2022ER  -