Storm throw probability

The data set represents the calculated and estimated probability of tree stocks along the rail infrastructure of the federal states of NRW and Thuringia compared to tree fall (Bundeswide calculation in planning). This product of storm throw probability is the result of the research project “Sensitivity analysis of vegetation along the federal transport routes with regard to storm throw hazards and embankment fires” of the German Centre for Rail Transport Research at the Railway Federal Office as part of the work of the BMDV expert network in the field of climate change impacts and adaptation (BMDV-Expert Network.de). The factual information and hazard classes are provided exclusively for the area of rail infrastructure. Probability estimates for the overturning of trees in the area of the rail infrastructure to each 50 m on both sides of the track are shown. The risk assessments have been calculated at the level of individual trees determined in a previous project derivating the tree stock along the DZSF’s German rail network using aerial images and digital elevation models (cf. DZSF Research Report 10/2021; Storm throw exposure). The probability assessment was carried out using a MaxEnt model based on past events as well as data sets on topography, vegetation, meteorology and soil. The potential is expressed between 0 and 1, with a higher value representing a higher susceptibility of vegetation to the overturn based on the model parameters. Only the tree polygons that have exposure classes 3 and 4 in the storm throw exposure dataset can be seen. This shows which trees could be potentially dangerous to the rail infrastructure in the event of a fall.