[Climate] Trends in Atmospheric Emissions in Central Asian Countries Since 1990 in the Context of Regional Development

In Central Asian countries (CACs) atmosphere pollution is increasing due to population growth, economic growth, agricultural development, energy consumption and climate change. The countries of region developed climate change adaptation strategies - Nation-ally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At the same time, regional integration, which should be a necessary condition for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the solving of gen-eral environmental problems, is not involved. This article shows the importance of a com-prehensive analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) and non-greenhouse emissions into the at-mosphere for the entire Central Asian region as a single ecosystem. The energy intensity of national economies structure was chosen as the main factor determining the level of pollution. The analysis shows that over the past 30 years, the main part of the commodity exports (73.6 - 81.4%) of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan has been fossil natural resources. There is a strong economic dependence on coal and other types of fuel, which leads to the atmospheric emissions. The analysis shows that limited financial resources, lack of effec-tive systemic monitoring and control of air quality that meets modern international re-quirements and standards, leads to absence of tangible changes in practice yet. Over 30 years in CACs, the share of CO2 emissions associated with the fossil fuels combustion has not decreased and amounts to 78%. The key mechanisms for reducing atmospheric emis-sions are significantly increase investments in the transformation of the economies in the context of regional development, interstate cooperation, the introduction of environmental norms, standards harmonized with world ones, green technologies based on alternative energy, sustainable transport and logistics infrastructure.中亚国家（Central Asian Countries, CACs）的大气污染正随人口增长、经济发展、农业扩张、能源消耗及气候变化而日益加剧。该区域各国已依据《联合国气候变化框架公约》（United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC）制定了气候变化适应战略——国家自主贡献方案（Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs）。然而，在解决一般性环境问题以实现可持续发展目标（Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs）的过程中，本应作为必要前提的区域一体化却未得到充分落实。本文论证了将整个中亚区域视作单一生态系统，对其大气温室气体（Greenhouse Gas, GHG）与非温室气体排放开展综合分析的重要性。研究选取各国经济结构的能源强度作为决定污染水平的核心影响因素。分析结果显示，过去30年间，哈萨克斯坦与土库曼斯坦的商品出口中，化石自然资源占比达73.6%至81.4%；两国经济高度依赖煤炭及其他化石燃料，由此引发了大气污染物排放。分析同时指出，由于财政资源有限，且缺乏符合现代国际规范与标准的系统化高效空气质量监测与管控体系，目前尚未取得实质性改善成效。30余年来，中亚国家因化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳排放占比始终未出现下降，目前仍高达78%。降低大气污染物排放的核心路径包括：大幅加大区域发展框架下的经济转型投资、加强国家间合作、推行与国际标准接轨的环境规范与准则、研发基于替代能源的绿色技术，以及构建可持续交通与物流基础设施。