Using species distribution models and decision tools to direct surveys and identify potential translocation sites for a critically endangered species

Aim: Occurrence records for cryptic species are typically limited or highly uncertain, leaving their distributions poorly resolved and hampering conservation. This can apply to well‐studied species, and increased survey effort and/or novel methods are required to improve distribution data. Here, we paired species distribution modelling (SDM) with decision tools to direct surveys for the critically endangered Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) outside its current restricted range. We also assessed survey areas for their suitability to host translocations.

Location: Victoria, Australia.

Method: We used both recent and historic records (now out of range and spatially uncertain) of Leadbeater's possum to build SDMs using MaxEnt. The SDMs informed an initial multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) that enabled prioritization of 80 survey sites across seven forest patches (13–145 km outside the known range), which we surveyed using camera traps. Site and vegetation data wer...