GDP-MILEX

India is a country that has survived several upheavals. To achieve stability, peace, and prosperity, the nation's leaders have long sought to strike a balance between funding a powerful military and a growing economy. This article investigates and clarifies the relationship between India's military spending and economic growth from 1960 to 2021. This research examines the short- and long-run equilibrium link between military expenditures and economic development in India using the Gregory Hansen cointegration test, allowing for structural breaks, and the ARDL bounds test approach. The findings show a favorable association between military spending and economic growth in India across the research period in the short run. It also finds a short and long-term bidirectional causal relationship between military expenditure (MILEX) and gross domestic product (GDP), verifying the Wagnerian and Keynesian hypotheses in the defense sector. For the Indian government, this conclusion has significant policy ramifications because it supports the shift of resources to the military by demonstrating that it has not had a detrimental effect on economic growth.印度是一个历经多次动荡仍屹立不倒的国家。为实现国家稳定、和平与繁荣，印度领导层长期以来一直在为强军拨款与发展经济之间寻求平衡。本文旨在探究并阐明1960年至2021年间印度国防开支与经济增长之间的关联。本研究采用允许结构突变的Gregory Hansen协整检验（Gregory Hansen cointegration test）与自回归分布滞后边界检验法（ARDL bounds test approach），对印度国防开支与经济发展间的长短期均衡关联展开分析。研究结果显示，在整个考察期内，印度国防开支与经济增长在短期存在正向相关关系。同时，研究发现国防开支（MILEX）与国内生产总值（GDP）之间存在短期及长期双向因果关系，验证了国防领域的瓦格纳假说（Wagnerian hypothesis）与凯恩斯假说（Keynesian hypotheses）。该结论对印度政府具有重要的政策启示：研究表明国防开支并未对经济增长产生负面影响，这为政府将资源投向国防领域提供了理论支撑。