Reproducibility materials for cross-national forecasting of disability and death from longitudinal ageing trajectories

This dataset contains the public reproducibility materials for a cross-national study forecasting transitions between independent living, instrumental activities of daily living limitation, activities of daily living limitation, and death using longitudinal ageing trajectories. The study used harmonised data from six international ageing cohorts: the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing (KLoSA), and Mexican Health and Aging Study (MHAS). HRS, ELSA, and SHARE were used for model development, whereas CHARLS, KLoSA, and MHAS were retained as fully held-out external validation cohorts. The archive includes analysis and modelling code, machine-readable configuration files, computational environment specifications, synthetic examples, aggregate audit tables, summary results, figures, checksum manifests, and detailed instructions for independently obtaining the source cohort products and reconstructing the analytical datasets. It supports reproduction of conventional machine-learning benchmarks, longitudinal neural-network comparisons, Qwen3-8B QLoRA experiments, temporal ablations, training-scale analyses, missingness and cohort-fingerprint audits, calibration analyses, decision-curve analyses, subgroup evaluations, and participant-clustered paired bootstrap comparisons. Participant-level source data, derived microdata, individual-level predictions, fitted model objects, and model weights are not included because the original cohort data-use agreements do not permit redistribution by the authors. Researchers must obtain the relevant source data directly from the respective cohort custodians and comply with their registration and data-use requirements. The included reconstruction documentation specifies the required data products, variable harmonisation procedures, participant-level partitioning rules, fixed random seeds, model configurations, and integrity checks. These materials are intended to support transparent methodological evaluation and independent reproduction of the reported analyses. They are not intended for clinical use or individual-level risk assessment.本数据集包含一项跨国研究的公开可复现材料，该研究基于纵向衰老轨迹，预测独立生活、工具性日常生活活动受限、日常生活活动受限与死亡之间的状态转换。该研究使用了6项国际老龄化队列的标准化数据，分别为：健康与退休研究（Health and Retirement Study, HRS）、英国老龄化纵向研究（English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, ELSA）、欧洲健康、老龄化与退休调查（Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe, SHARE）、中国健康与退休纵向研究（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, CHARLS）、韩国老龄化纵向研究（Korean Longitudinal Study of Ageing, KLoSA）以及墨西哥健康与老龄化研究（Mexican Health and Aging Study, MHAS）。其中HRS、ELSA与SHARE用于模型开发，CHARLS、KLoSA及MHAS则作为完全独立的外部验证队列留存。 本归档文件包含分析与建模代码、机器可读配置文件、计算环境规范、合成示例数据、汇总审核表、结果摘要、可视化图表、校验和清单，以及用于独立获取源队列数据集并重构分析数据集的详细操作指南。该归档可支持复现常规机器学习基准测试、纵向神经网络对比实验、Qwen3-8B QLoRA实验、时间消融实验、训练规模分析、缺失值与队列特征审核、校准分析、决策曲线分析、亚组评估，以及参与者聚类配对Bootstrap比较实验。 由于原始队列的数据使用协议不允许作者进行二次分发，本数据集未包含参与者级源数据、衍生微观数据、个体层面预测结果、拟合模型对象以及模型权重。研究人员需直接从对应队列的托管机构获取相关源数据，并遵守其注册要求与数据使用规范。本归档中附带的重构文档明确了所需数据集产品、变量标准化流程、参与者级数据划分规则、固定随机种子、模型配置以及完整性校验方法。 本套材料仅用于支持对已报告分析的透明方法学评估与独立复现，不得用于临床用途或个体层面的风险评估。