Bioenergy crop yield

Although the bioenergy yield potential has been assessed at global and regional scales, the yield responses to climate variability and extreme events remain uncertain. We develop three bioenergy yield models for Miscanthus, switchgrass, and corn with field observational and county-level data to simulate the annual biomass yield and yield variability over US corn harvested areas at 4km spatial resolution. In addition, we identify the primary climate drivers of yield variations and assess the potential to mitigate climate-associated yield losses through the strategic deployment of more resilient crop types across region. Our findings reveal that temperature-related factors are the dominant drivers of biomass yield variation in Miscanthus, accounting for 21-32% of the variability, while both temperature and water-related variables play critical roles in regulating yield variation in switchgrass. We also observe contrasting spatial patterns in bioenergy yield and climate resilience. If we replaced corn with perennial energy crops over corn harvested areas since year 1981, we found approximately 19–44% of corn-harvested areas could experience increased energy yield and improved climate resilience (measured by yield loss). Under future climate change scenarios, our projections suggest that the areas benefiting from switching corn to perennial bioenergy crops will diminish with warming climate. This study provides both spatially and temporally explicit estimates of bioenergy crop resilience to climate variability, underscoring the need for strategic planning in bioenergy crop cultivation across the US.