Crude Supply Risk

**Overview**

This index captures the price influence of changes in oil supply on a weekly basis. Factors are assessed on the country level: A positive score indicates a bullish supply impact on price, whereas a negative score indicates a bearish impact. The absolute value of the score is an indicator of the magnitude of the impact. The global price risk index is an aggregate of country-level risk scores, weighted by the country’s share of global crude and condensate capacity.

It is comprised of six factors:

- Political Violence score measures the likelihood of state failure, civil war, coups and coup attempts, revolution and/or public unrest, and terrorism in a country, based on recent history and current dynamics

- Geopolitical Risk score measures the degree to which a country is vulnerable to the threat of external war or conflict with its neighbours, as well as risks emanating from broader geopolitical tensions including sanctions and/or reputational risk

- Export Risk score is an assessment of constraints on the export of oil

- Facility and Personnel Violence score assesses the presence of various threats to both energy company personnel and facilities

- Ministerial/Policy Volatility score measures the risk of frequent or unpredictable changes in government policies and/or sector leadership affecting oil production and/or exports

- Labor Unrest measures the risk of changes to work force

**Use cases**
- Risk Analysis - Using a multi-factor risk profile for each country, understand the overall risks to the oil supply chain and potential impacts on price
- Sentiment Analysis - Utilize metrics from S&P perspectives on oil & gas activities that impact supply chain for oil

**Product details**

Sample Tables:
A ) COUNTRY_SCORES
B ) COUNTRY_TOTAL_SCORES

Sample Fields:
A ) COUNTRY_SCORES
RISK_SCORE_ID
SCORING_DATE
POLITICAL_VIOLENCE
GEOPOLITICAL_RISK
EXPORT_RISK
MINISTERIAL_POLICY_VOLATILITY
FACILITY_AND_PERSONNEL_VIOLENCE
LABOR_UNREST
OVERALL_COUNTRY_PRICE_RISK
CRUDE_CAPACITY
GLOBAL_CAPACITY
INDUSTRY_SHOCK
GLOBAL_PRICE_RISK
COUNTRY

B ) COUNTRY_TOTAL_SCORES
RISK_SCORE_ID
SCORING_DATE
TOTAL_GLOBAL_PRICE_RISK
TOTAL_GLOBAL_PRICE_RISK_NORMALISED

View Descriptions:

- COUNTRY_SCORES - Get Oil Supply risk country scores
- COUNTRY_TOTAL_SCORES - Get Oil Supply risk country total scores
- CRUDESUPPLYRISK_DICTIONARY - Contains descriptions and examples of each of the columns in the above views for a better understanding of the dataset