Estimated secondary attack rates without and with vaccination.

The vaccine is assumed to be 90% effective (VES = 0.9) in preventing infection but not effective reducing infectiousness (VEI = 0). Shown are inferred secondary attack rates (SARs) for various household compositions. Estimates are represented by posterior medians and 2.5% and 97.5% posterior quantiles. Households consist of either a child and an adult (rows 1-2), an adolescent and an adult (rows 3-4), two children and two adults (rows 5-6), two adolescents and two adults (rows 7-8), or two children, two adolescents, and two adults (rows 9-11), thus including the most common household compositions with children and adolescents in the Netherlands (rows 1-8). For each household composition, SARs are calculated for all possible primary cases. Vaccination scenarios are considered in which adults are vaccinated, or in which both adults and adolescents are vaccinated. NA: households do not contain an adolescent. Estimates are based on 1,000 samples from the posterior distribution.