Species Distribution Modeling of Invasive, Fire Promoting Grasses, Across the Hawaiian Islands in Both 2023 and Under a Future Scenario of Unmitigated Climate Change in 2100

This product used species distribution modeling (SDM) to model the geographic distribution fire promoting grasses across the islands of Hawaii under both current climate conditions and under future climate change scenarios (RCP 8.5 at year 2100). The RCP 8.5 scenario assumes unmitigated and continued release of greenhouse grasses and continued human population growth. Six species of well established and widely distributed grasses (Andropogon virginicus (broomsedge), Cenchrus ciliaris (buffelgrass), Cenchrus setaceus (fountain grass), Megathyrus maximus (guinea grass, Urochloa maxima, Pancicum maximum), Melinis minutiflora (mollasses grass), and Schizachyrium microstachyum (formerly referred to as S. condensatum in Hawai'i) were modeled along with six species of incipient grasses which are not yet widely distributed Andropogon bicornis (bicornis grass), Cortaderia selloana (pampas), Cortaderia jubata (jubata grass), Hyparrhenia hirta (thatching grass), Imperata cylindrica (cogon grass), Miscanthus floridulus (pacific island silvergrass). A nested modeling technique was used by combining a SDM trained on data from outside of Hawaii with a SDM trained on only data collected in Hawaii. For both the Hawaiian and global models, ensemble species distribution modeling was used.