Post-Fire Vegetation Recovery in Northern Manitoba: Influence of Burn Severity and Pre-Fire Land Cover

Vegetation recovery following wildfire was examined in a large 2013 wildfire complex in northern Manitoba, covering approximately 168,837 hectares. This study focused on how burn severity and pre-fire land cover influenced recovery patterns over the first decade after fire. Landsat surface reflectance imagery from 2010 to 2023 was used to calculate the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), and the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR). These indices were used to assess burn severity and measure post-fire spectral recovery using recovery slope and years to recovery. Annual land cover data were also used to describe broader vegetation change after the fire. Low-severity pixels dominated the burn area, with smaller areas of moderate and very low or unburned classes. Recovery based on NDVI occurred more quickly than recovery based on NBR. Most pixels reached 80% of pre-fire NDVI values within four years, whereas many pixels did not reach the NBR recovery threshold within the study period. Recovery rates differed by burn severity and pre-fire land cover, with moderate-severity areas showing the highest recovery slopes. Land cover results showed that shrub and herb classes remained dominant across the burned area during the first decade after fire. This study provides local insight into post-fire recovery in northern Manitoba and highlights the value of satellite time series for monitoring post-fire spectral recovery in remote boreal landscapes.