Supplementary file 1_Climate exposure, institutional constraints, and transformation pathways in Fiji’s sugarcane industry.docx

Fiji’s sugarcane industry, once the nation’s economic backbone, is at a critical crossroads, facing a multifaceted crisis that threatens its survival. Production has plummeted by over 63% from its 1996 peak, a decline driven by an aging farmer demographic, with 74% of growers over 50, rising labor costs, and antiquated milling infrastructure. This structural decay is severely compounded by intensifying climate extremes, including devastating cyclones and projections of increased heat, drought, and salinity stress that continue to suppress yields and sucrose content. Systemic vulnerabilities, rooted in land lease insecurity and youth disengagement, have locked the sector in a cycle of decline where incremental reforms are no longer viable. This perspective paper advances a strategic blueprint for radical transformation, calling for a decisive pivot from low-margin commodity dependence toward a climate-resilient, technology-enabled, and diversified agricultural system. Core interventions include the modernization of mills and on-farm mechanization, systemic land tenure reforms to secure investment, and the adoption of climate-smart cultivation practices to empower farmers. The fate of Fiji’s sugar industry is an economic imperative and a test of political will; without these evidence-driven actions, its collapse is imminent, but with them, Fiji can transform a struggling relic into a sustainable engine for rural development.