SENSIBILIDAD Y RIESGO: ESTUDIO DE CASO DE UN RASTRO PRIVADO EN FUNCIONAMIENTO COMERCIAL

To carry out the sensitivity and risk analysis of a private slaughterhouse in operation, the formulation and evaluation of agricultural projects methodology was used. In the sensitivity, the update rate (UR), sale price and sales volume and production volume were considered. As BP increases, the NPV decreases and would not support a value greater than 20%; a higher sale price increases the value of the indicators, while the higher the volume of production at slaughter, the profitability of the project increases. The risk analysis was carried out with 1000 random runs where the IRR yielded a 0% probability that this indicator reaches values greater than 75%, for the NPV estimate, 6.1 million pesos were considered, yielding a value of 17.6%, this probability is low to obtain the value considered during the project horizon, in the case of the B/CR there is a probability of between 17.5% and 15.6%, these values are low, although the project is still accepted. Based on the analyzes carried out and the values obtained, the slaughter project continues to be accepted and it is suggested that it continue with its commercial operation activities, in response to the demand for slaughter towards the population.