Assessment of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: A Sensitivity Analysis among Models

This activity is a comparison of how large-scale models represent permafrost carbon dynamics into the future (2010-2299). Model responses were evaluated at several temporal scales. To the extent possible, we standardized driver data and simulation procedures among the models. However, the protocol has been set up so that each model can build upon the procedures used to produce the outputs for historical analysis (1960- 2009) that was published in McGuire et al. 2016 (Global Biogeochemical Cycles 30:1015-1037, doi:10.1002/2016GB005405). Note that this comparison is an offline model comparison in which we assessed the sensitivity of the responses of the models to somewhat standardized forcing data. The activity compared among the models: Carbon dynamics: Predictions of average annual C fluxes (GPP, NPP, RH, CH4 fluxes, disturbance-related emissions, dissolved organic carbon export, lateral land used fluxes, etc.) and major pools for the northern permafrost region for the 2010-2299 period. Soil thermal dynamics: Predictions of annual soil thermal and hydrological dynamics at prescribed depths and the maximum annual active layer depth (in permafrost locations) for the 2010-2299 time period. The spatial simulation data for this project are are available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center (doi: 10.5067/ZRL5WJKN01XM).