Negative temporal autocorrelation in mast seeding dynamics positively influences both the long and short-term dynamics of a wild boar population

Temporal autocorrelation in environmental conditions influences population
dynamics through its effects on vital rates. However, a comprehensive
understanding of how and to what extent temporal autocorrelation shapes
population dynamics is still lacking because most empirical studies have
unrealistically assumed that environmental conditions are temporally
independent. Mast seeding is a biological event characterized by
highly fluctuating and synchronized seed production at the tree population
scale, as well as a marked negative temporal autocorrelation. In the
current context of global change, mast seeding events are expected to
become more frequent, leading to strengthened negative temporal
autocorrelations and thereby amplified cyclicality in mast seeding
dynamics with cycles of length 2 years. Theory predicts that
population growth rates are maximized when the environmental cyclicality
of consumer resources and their generation times are closely
matched. To test this prediction, we took advantage of the
long-term monitoring of a wild boar population, a widespread seed consumer
species characterized by a short generation time (ca. 2 years).
As expected, simulations indicated that its stochastic
population growth rate increased as mast seeding dynamics became
more negatively autocorrelated. Our findings demonstrate
that accounting for temporal autocorrelations
in environmental conditions relative to generation
time of the focal population is required, especially under global
warming where the cyclicality in resource dynamics is likely to change.