Plant-Level Health Benefits from Decarbonizing the Iron and Steel Industry in China

Decarbonizing the iron and steel industry (ISI) reduces
air pollutant
emissions, yielding substantial public health cobenefits. Existing
assessments fail to account for plant-level heterogeneity in production
routes and geographic settingscritical determinants of health
impactshindering the formulation of targeted decarbonization
strategies that maximize health gains. Here, by integrating a facility-level
emission inventory with inverse atmospheric modeling, we estimate
that the Chinese ISI emits 1.56 Pg of CO2 and 0.85 Tg of
PM2.5 annually, with 147,000 (IQR: 121,000–184,000)
annual PM2.5-attributable premature deaths linked to ISI
emissions, and the health burdens varying by 77,500-fold across individual
plants. Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) processes impose
3.8 times higher mortality intensity than electric arc furnaces (EAFs)
(172 vs 45 deaths per 1000 Gg steel produced), with 80% of mortality
concentrated in 21% of plantspredominantly large BF-BOF complexes
in densely populated eastern China. Strategically relocating 30 Tg
eastern BF-BOF capacity (3.6% of the national total) to scrap-based
EAFs in low-carbon southwestern power grids could prevent 12,300 (IQR:
9500–16,100) annual deaths (8.4% reduction), generating USD
24.5 (IQR: 20.0–30.4) billion in combined climate-health benefits.
Natural gas-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF)
integration offers a scrap-independent alternative, achieving ∼50%
lower mortality than BF-BOF. These findings advance targeted strategies
to optimize health outcomes during ISI decarbonization in China.