Multi-Model Ensemble Climate Projections for Ontario, Canada

Multi-model ensembles for climate modeling, created by combining seven Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM), are assessed at twelve stations, as well as for the entire domain of Ontario, Canada. Two multi-model ensembles were produced, one using the mean of the seven GCM and RCM combinations and the other using the median of the same seven GCM and RCM combinations. Three temperature variables (average surface temperature, maximum surface temperature, and minimum surface temperature) were used to evaluate the performance of the models. Data obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment were compared with gridded data based on observations from the Climactic Research Unit’s TS v4.00 dataset, as well as observed station data from the Digital Archive of Canadian Climatological Data provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada.本研究针对由7个全球气候模式（Global Climate Models, GCM）与区域气候模式（Regional Climate Models, RCM）组合构建的多模式集合方案，在加拿大安大略省全域及12个气象站点开展性能评估。本研究构建了两类多模式集合方案：一类采用7组GCM与RCM组合结果的平均值，另一类采用同一7组组合结果的中位数。选取地表平均气温、地表最高气温、地表最低气温这3个温度变量，对各模式的模拟性能进行评估。将北美协同区域降尺度试验（North American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment）生成的模拟数据，与基于气候研究单元（Climactic Research Unit）TS v4.00数据集的格点观测数据，以及加拿大环境与气候变化部提供的加拿大气候数据数字档案馆中的实测站点观测数据进行对比。