Social mobility and fertility: Applying diagonal reference models in historical studies (Sweden, 1870–2015)

Theoretically there are good reasons to expect social mobility to have an effect on fertility. The problem is how to assess such an effect empirically, as social mobility is a function of both social origin and destination. This paper presents the Diagonal Reference Model (DRM) as a valuable historical method to study social mobility consequences. We use Swedish individual-level longitudinal data with intergenerational links covering the period 1905 to 2015 for cohorts born as early as 1870. We apply DRM to test hypotheses about the association between social mobility and fertility net of social origin and social attainment. The results show a constant but small negative association between upward social mobility and fertility. This relationship was most pronounced in the oldest cohorts, suggesting the need for more research on social mobility effects in historical settings with DRMs.